Everyone’s talking about construction labor shortages. I’ve been digging through Q3 2025 data, and we’re looking at the wrong problem.
The UK construction workforce hit 2,054,009 workers—the lowest in 25 years. Down 1.6% from last year and 12% below 2019. We’ve lost 281,000 workers.
But here’s what caught my attention: this isn’t a labor shortage. It’s a work shortage.
Self-Employment Collapsed
I tracked self-employed workers from 920,000 in Q3 2019 to 755,576 today—down 18% in six years.
Brexit, retirements, and COVID gutted the flexible workforce. The industry lost its ability to scale with demand.
Then I looked at vacancies: plummeted by one-third since January 2025. Down to 29,000 job openings—8,000 fewer than 2024.
The BCIS chief economist nailed it: “When vacancies, employment and output are all moving in the same direction, it underlines that the more pressing issue isn’t a shortage of workers, it’s a shortage of work.”
Policy vs. Reality
Here’s where it gets uncomfortable. The government wants to build domestic workforce capacity through training programs and apprenticeships.
Those take years. The market shifts monthly.
We used to fill gaps with overseas labor. That option is gone. Domestic capacity won’t materialize until the mid-2030s.
So I’m watching the workforce contract because there’s no work to sustain it. When demand returns—and it will—those workers will be gone.
What Happens Next
I’m watching skilled workers leave for other sectors. Self-employment continues to decline. The flexible workforce that could respond to demand spikes is gone.
Without intervention to stabilize activity now, the industry won’t have the workforce when conditions improve.
Getting back to 2019 building levels will be difficult. Meeting housing targets will be impossible if the workforce keeps contracting.
We’re obsessing over a labor shortage that doesn’t exist. The real crisis? We’re bleeding capacity during a downturn, and we’ll have no one left when the work returns.